{"id":1817,"date":"2022-07-19T20:41:42","date_gmt":"2022-07-20T00:41:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/americancompass.beckandstone.com\/pass-the-chips-please-2\/"},"modified":"2022-11-09T09:00:13","modified_gmt":"2022-11-09T14:00:13","slug":"pass-the-chips-please","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/americancompass.org\/pass-the-chips-please\/","title":{"rendered":"Pass the CHIPS, Please"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Congress finally <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/us\/us-senate-start-voting-tuesday-slimmed-down-china-semiconductor-bill-2022-07-18\/\">appears poised<\/a> to make progress on a competitiveness bill that focuses squarely on an especially pressing need: support for the domestic semiconductor industry. The case for doing this has been well made in numerous forums, from American Compass\u2019s own <a href=\"https:\/\/americancompass.org\/a-guide-to-the-semiconductor-industry\/\">Guide to the Semiconductor Industry<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalreview.com\/magazine\/2021\/05\/03\/americas-microchip-slip\/\">analysis at <em>National Review<\/em><\/a> to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/semiconductor-dependency-imperils-american-security-chip-manufacturing-technology-sector-11655654650\">recent <em>Wall Street Journal <\/em>op-ed<\/a> by Graham Allison and Eric Schmidt to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reaganfoundation.org\/media\/358068\/task_force_report_2021_manufacturing_renaissance.pdf\">Reagan Institute\u2019s report<\/a> on Bolstering U.S. Production for National Security and Economic Prosperity, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nscai.gov\/2021-final-report\/\">final report of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence<\/a>, and the <a href=\"https:\/\/media.defense.gov\/2022\/Feb\/24\/2002944158\/-1\/-1\/1\/DOD-EO-14017-REPORT-SECURING-DEFENSE-CRITICAL-SUPPLY-CHAINS.PDF\">Department of Defense\u2019s 2022 supply chain review<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In short:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The United States has lost its lead in semiconductor production capacity and its ability to produce cutting-edge chips; it now relies on Taiwan and South Korea. China is claiming the lion\u2019s share of new investment in production capacity and is on a pathway to surpassing the U.S. as well.<\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">None of this bears any relationship to \u201ccomparative advantage\u201d or the inherent capabilities of these nations or their economics. It is the direct result of government subsidies for investment, which has in turn led to entrenched supply chains and expertise in Asia and declining capabilities here at home.<\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Leadership in semiconductors is vital to national security and economic resilience, as well as to maintaining leadership in innovation across a wide range of 21st century technologies. The U.S. faces a straightforward choice between (a) using public policy to offset foreign subsidies and make domestic investment attractive again, and (b) abandoning the field.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>After numerous proposals, studies, and negotiations, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nist.gov\/semiconductors\/chips-act\">Congress incorporated the \u201cCHIPS Act\u201d<\/a> in the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act for FY2021. The Senate amendment incorporating the CHIPS Act passed 96\u20134. The question now is whether Senators will vote to finalize and fund the programs that they already approved. They should do so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The <em>Wall Street Journal<\/em> Accidentally Helps Make the Case<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The weakness of the case against a semiconductor policy inadvertently illustrates the policy\u2019s strength. This morning\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/congress-goes-all-in-for-chip-subsidies-semiconductors-corporate-welfare-senate-bill-china-11658178596\"><em>Wall Street Journal<\/em> editorial<\/a> makes this clear with counterarguments that are less arguments than an incoherent set of generic talking points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1. The <em>Journal<\/em> begins by warning, \u201cTaxpayers should at least know they\u2019ll be subsidizing highly profitable companies that don\u2019t need the help.\u201d This is a sloppy conflation of two different issues\u2014profitability and investment incentives. Of course, many semiconductor manufacturers are highly profitable. The policy goal here is not to boost their profits, but to alter their incentives to encourage domestic investment. \u201cThese companies make a lot of money\u201d is not an argument against encouraging investment that would be good for America.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <em>Journal<\/em> knows this, because it is the logic that it applies to corporate tax cuts. Such cuts go, by definition, to profitable companies\u2014the more highly profitable, the greater the benefit. The case for them is that a lower tax rate will enhance the incentive to make investments\u2014\u201cmake the U.S. more competitive across the globe\u201d and \u201cmaking America more welcoming to investment,\u201d to quote <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/half-a-tax-reform-1509663296\">a <em>Journal<\/em> editorial<\/a> in favor of corporate tax cuts in 2017.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2. The <em>Journal<\/em> tries to frame the policy as a belated and unnecessary response to pandemic-related chip shortages. (\u201cThe impetus for the bill was a severe pandemic chip shortage that disrupted supply chains and raised the cost of autos and many other products.\u201d) This is simply false. As noted above, policymakers have been working on the issue for the years, motivated by long-term trends that predate the pandemic and will persist long after. The precursor legislation to the CHIPS Act was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.risch.senate.gov\/public\/index.cfm\/2020\/6\/risch-joins-bipartisan-effort-to-bring-production-of-semiconductors-critical-to-national-security-back-to-u-s\">introduced in mid-2020<\/a> with no reference to the pandemic or related shortages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>3. The <em>Journal<\/em> claims that \u201cchip fabrication has moved to South Korea and Taiwan because many chips are commodities with low margins.\u201d This is, again, simply false. Taiwan is the unquestioned leader in fabricating the most advanced chips, at least a generation ahead of what U.S. foundries can do\u2014as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/the-world-relies-on-one-chip-maker-in-taiwan-leaving-everyone-vulnerable-11624075400\">reported<\/a> in the <em>Wall Street Journal<\/em>. Just last month, Samsung began production of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-06-30\/samsung-is-first-to-start-mass-production-of-3nm-chips?sref=9W0Pttd1\">even more-advanced<\/a>&nbsp;chips. Of course, there\u2019s nothing in the Korean or Taiwanese soil that makes these places ideal for chip fabrication. There\u2019s just decades of aggressive industrial policy that makes it about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.semiconductors.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/Government-Incentives-and-US-Competitiveness-in-Semiconductor-Manufacturing-Sep-2020.pdf\">30% cheaper<\/a> to build a plant in those places rather than America, the vast majority of that gap driven by ongoing subsidies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>4. The <em>Journal<\/em> points to \u201c$80 billion in new U.S. investments through 2025,\u201d but much of that is contingent on exactly the policy that the <em>Journal<\/em> would abandon. For instance, Intel has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/06\/23\/intel-warns-ohio-expansion-could-be-delayed-because-congress-is-dragging-its-feet-on-funding.html\">warned<\/a> its $20 billion Ohio investment depends on the CHIPS Act. A $5 billion GlobalWafers investment in Texas likewise <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/taiwans-globalwafers-to-invest-5-billion-in-new-texas-plant-11656330302\">hinges<\/a> on it. The <em>Journal<\/em> notes that, \u201cSamsung plans to build a $17 billion factory in Texas. TSMC has a $12 billion plant under construction in Arizona.\u201d But as one Taiwanese official <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/us-policy\/2022\/06\/28\/tsmc-arizona-construction-subsidies\/\">put it<\/a>, \u201cTSMC has already begun their construction in Arizona, basically because of trust. They believe the Chips Act will be passed by &nbsp;the Congress.\u201d Samsung\u2019s investment was <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/oren_cass\/status\/1463145460856672268\">likewise dependent<\/a> on government support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>5. The <em>Journal<\/em> tries to tar bill supporters with the accusation that they are enamored of Chinese-style planning: \u201cOne unfortunate impetus behind this bill is that, for all their talk of competing with China, many politicians believe that Beijing\u2019s economic planning is superior to the U.S. free-market system.\u201d But of course, the editorial includes no examples of someone making this argument, because no one has made it.What supporters <em>do<\/em> argue is that, to quote <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reaganfoundation.org\/media\/358068\/task_force_report_2021_manufacturing_renaissance.pdf\">the Reagan Institute<\/a>, \u201cAmerica must work cohesively with allies and partners to address the current challenge from state-centric economies whose industrial policies undermine [free-market] ideals and tilt the global economy in their favor.\u201d The problem here is that \u201cfree\u201d trade poses a threat to \u201cfree\u201d markets when the trade is with nations that aggressively distort investment incentives. The WSJ editorial board\u2019s market fundamentalism can\u2019t cope with this challenge, but policymakers have to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <em>Journal<\/em> concludes with a cringe-worthy misunderstanding of \u201cSematech,\u201d the Reagan-era industry consortium that boosted semiconductor innovation beginning in the 1980s, in response to rising Japanese competition. The <em>Journal<\/em>\u2019s evidence is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/government-wont-fix-the-semiconductor-shortage-11619649205?mod=article_inline\">an op-ed<\/a> it published last year by former Cypress Semiconductor CEO T.J. Rodgers, who wrote, \u201cthe government set up the Sematech chip consortium that \u2018was obsolescent when it opened.\u2019 But Intel innovated with more advanced chips.\u201d Rodgers says Sematech \u201cdid zero for the industry\u201d and demonstrates its obsolescence by noting that \u201clayoffs started in 2002.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Where to begin. First, Sematech began operating in the late 1980s. So, layoffs in 2002 would have been 15 years later, hardly evidence of \u201cobsolescence when it opened.\u201d Second, those layoffs weren\u2019t because of obsolescence, they were <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bizjournals.com\/austin\/stories\/2002\/04\/08\/daily3.html\">the result of budget cuts<\/a> after the dot-com bust. Layoffs occurred industry-wide, including at Intel, which <a href=\"https:\/\/www.computerworld.com\/article\/2806000\/intel-s-job-cuts-were-deeper-than-expected-in-2002.html\">laid off thousands of people<\/a> that year despite its impressive track record of innovation. (Incidentally, Intel played a leading role in Sematech.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most assessments consider Sematech a success. \u201cWith a few vocal exceptions,\u201d concludes a <a href=\"https:\/\/books.google.com\/books?id=ZhKdAgAAQBAJ&amp;pg=PA257&amp;lpg=PA257&amp;dq=%22Sematech+is+widely+credited+within+the+U.S.+industry+with+some+role+in+stimulating+a+resurgence+among+U.S.+semiconductor+producers+in+the+1990s.%22&amp;source=bl&amp;ots=_vykwVomWI&amp;sig=ACfU3U0NRiSL8-LcxrHdq3M0_WmZKbZKCg&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjA-I6y84P5AhU6EGIAHbOBAgEQ6AF6BAgCEAM#v=onepage&amp;q=%22Sematech%20is%20widely%20credited%20within%20the%20U.S.%20industry%20with%20some%20role%20in%20stimulating%20a%20resurgence%20among%20U.S.%20semiconductor%20producers%20in%20the%201990s.%22&amp;f=false\">National Academy of Sciences report<\/a>, \u201cSematech is widely credited within the U.S. industry with some role in stimulating a resurgence among U.S. semiconductor producers in the 1990s.\u201d The Academy also highlights \u201cthe revealed willingness of its corporate members to continue funding Sematech at levels exceeding earlier private contributions after public subsidies ended in 1996.\u201d That\u2019s right\u2014industry was investing alongside the government all along, and when the government program wound down, industry kept right on going. Those \u201cobsolescent\u201d layoffs of 2002 came much later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another <a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/2011\/07\/25\/192832\/lessons-from-sematech\/\">positive assessment<\/a> comes from <em>MIT Technology Review<\/em>, which notes a number of tangible technical benefits of the program and observes, \u201cSematech has become a model for how industry and government can work together to restore manufacturing industries\u2014or help jump-start new ones.\u201d Comically, MIT did find one vocal critic\u2014the very same Mr. Rodgers relied upon by the <em>Journal<\/em>. \u201cCypress Semiconductor CEO T.J. Rodgers complained that Sematech was an \u2018exclusive country club\u2019 of large chip makers that for too long didn\u2019t share technologies with smaller companies.\u201d To be polite, it is hard to square his frustration that Sematech technology wasn\u2019t being widely shared with his claim that it \u201cdid zero for the industry.\u201d One might hypothesize some resentment from being left out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To summarize, the <em>Journal<\/em> hangs its skepticism of semiconductor policy <em>not<\/em> working on a widely praised program that accomplished its objectives, criticized by someone who wanted to participate, on the ground that layoffs occurred during the dot-com bust. If that\u2019s what failure looks like, let\u2019s have some more of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Opportunities for Improvement<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Several issues remain unresolved in the legislation, chief among them the question of what guardrails Congress will impose on investments by the recipients of federal funding. To be clear, the federal funds themselves are incentives specifically for domestic investment. But policymakers want firms receiving the funds to be constrained from doing future business in China. The debate hinges on how tight a statutory standard to set for the types of \u201clegacy\u201d (i.e., less advanced) chips that can be made in China, whether to give the Commerce Department flexibility to set the standard itself, and whether all forms of support come with guardrails attached.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Restrictions on investment in China are a good idea, to be sure. The taller and stronger the guardrails, the better. But holding incentives for domestic investment hostage to tougher restrictions on foreign investment may not be wise or necessary, for two reasons:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1. People like to say \u201cmoney is fungible,\u201d but in this instance it\u2019s not. The point of spending money on subsidies for domestic production isn\u2019t getting resources to particular firms, it\u2019s creating the incentive to invest. This is the opposite of a bailout, where resources go to firms regardless of their behavior, and the policy works only if the firms use those resources in certain ways. In that instance, restricting how a firm can use its resources makes sense. But here, the goal of the policy is improving the business case for building a domestic semiconductor plant. Guardrails can actually work against the short-run objective of encouraging domestic production, because their constraints make the subsidy less valuable, the business case less attractive. That\u2019s not to say that guardrails are a bad idea\u2014the tradeoff is worth making in the interests of advancing the longer-term goals of the policy in improving American competitiveness. But it is to say that guardrails are not what will make or break the effectiveness of the policy. Especially because\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2. The ideal guardrails would come independent of subsidies. Rather than only constrain companies that accept subsidies for domestic production, they would ideally be imposed on all companies. That would be more effective and create better incentives. The CHIPS Act is not the only or even the best opportunity to restrict semiconductor investment in China. Congress can just do it, and should.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With much legislative maneuvering still to come, policymakers should remain focused on the underlying structure and logic of the CHIPS Act, to which they\u2019ve already given deserved support. A resurgence of investment in domestic semiconductor capacity and innovation will require significant public spending, through a vehicle sure to be imperfect. But imperfect does not mean ineffective. Anyone can find an excuse to say no to any piece of legislation, but progress on rebuilding domestic industry will depend on sufficient courage to say yes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Restrictions on investment in China are a good idea, to be sure. The taller and stronger the guardrails, the better. But holding incentives for domestic investment hostage to tougher restrictions on foreign investment may not be wise or necessary, for two 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